The Southwest monsoon may advance into Goa and southern parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh over the next two days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, adding that conditions were favourable for the monsoon covering more parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the central Arabian sea as well as the west-central and northwest Bay of Bengal.
“A cyclonic circulation has already formed over the east-central Arabian Sea. It will help the monsoon advance,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist, national weather forecasting centre. “Monsoon moves in phases, sometimes slow and sometimes it progresses very fast after onset. If the monsoon is moving slowly that doesn’t mean it has weakened. There is no large system to help monsoon progress fast.”
Conditions will continue to become favourable for further advancement of the monsoon over parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and more parts of west-central and northwest Bay of Bengal during the subsequent two days, IMD said.
The monsoon is running several days behind schedule in covering peninsular India and is in the midst of what experts have called a weak phase, a potential cause for concern for farmers who are waiting to sow their crops.
By June 10, the monsoon usually covers large parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This year, it has so far covered most parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.
It has also covered almost all of northeast India. “Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura will receive widespread moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall during the next five days,” IMD said.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over Arunachal Pradesh on June 10 and 11 and over Assam and Meghalaya during the next five days, it added.
Isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal during the next five days, it said.
Under the influence of strong westerly to southwesterly winds along the west coast — Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep — scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms or lightning over Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Telangana were forecast during next five days.
“Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over south interior Karnataka on June 12; coastal Karnataka during June 9 to 13 and over Kerala and Mahe on June 11 and 12,” IMD said. “Widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds is likely over Konkan and Goa and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada during the next five days.”
Isolated heavy rainfall was also likely over Konkan & Goa on June 10 and 13 and isolated very heavy rainfall on June 11 and 12, it added.
The monsoon rains are critical this year because northwest and central India are experiencing a very prolonged extreme heat and dry spell which started in March. The monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and accounts for about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is especially critical to the country’s agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy. A good monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending. Monsoon rains are a lifeline for about 60% of the country’s net cultivated area that has no irrigation. The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand.
