Assam and Meghalaya recorded the highest June rainfall in 121 years with 858.1 mm breaking the earlier record of 789.5 mm recorded in 1966, but rainfall over Kerala and Mahe were the fourth lowest since 1901 recording only 308.7 mm, climate summary for June prepared by India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune said.
The report also estimated that over 313 persons died; 72 persons were injured; 50 were missing and over 72,000 livestock perished due to heavy rainfall and lightning in the first month of monsoon.
Out of these, 191 persons died, 8 persons injured, 50 persons went missing and 72,672 livestock perished due to landslides, heavy rain and flooding.
Most deaths due to flooding were in the northeast particularly Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Manipur (Noney landslide) and most of the lightning related deaths were reported from Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
The average maximum, minimum and mean temperature for the country as a whole during June 2022 were 34.12 degree C, 25.06 degree C and 29.59 degree C respectively, against the normal of 33.73 degree C, 24.76 degree C and 29.25 degree C based on the period of 1981-2010.
Thus, the average maximum, average minimum temperature and mean temperature were above normal by 0.40 degree C, 0.29 degree C, 0.35 degree C respectively for the country. Though parts of northwest India recorded extreme heat stress in early June, the extremities don’t reflect in the average temperatures possibly because of pre-monsoon showers. The maximum temperatures over northwest India ranked 33rd in the last 121 years and 25th in terms of minimum temperatures.
The climate summary points to an extremely skewed distribution of rainfall in June.
During June, only one low pressure system formed over Arabian Sea on June 27-28 leading to only two low pressure system days against the normal of 10.24 such days. The low-pressure systems formed during the monsoon season contribute to heavy and very heavy rainfall over many parts of the country.
Fewer low-pressure systems in June are mainly responsible for rainfall deficiency over the central Indian region,” the report has said.
In 2021, 10 low pressure systems had developed in June leading to extensive showers. Several meteorological stations though, made highest rainfall records in June this time including Mawsynram, Forbesganj, Srinagar Aero, Batote, Mahabalipuram, Mysore, Silchar and Najibabad.
Rainfall over the country as a whole for June 2022 shows that it has recorded 152.3 mm, which is 8% less than its Long Period Average (LPA) of 165.3 mm.
Central India recorded a 30% rain deficiency; northwest India recorded 12% rain deficiency; south peninsula 14% rain deficiency and east and northeast India recorded 22% excess.
“One of the main reasons for skewed rainfall distribution in June was absence of low-pressure systems which plays an important role in bringing rain to central India. Another reason if you look at the larger circulation features, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in an unfavourable location for rainfall; moreover, there was low typhoon activity over the northwest Pacific, which together led to patchy rains in India,” explained OP Sreejith, head, climate monitoring and prediction group, IMD, Pune.
MJO is a band of rain clouds that moves eastwards over the tropics and is responsible for most weather variations in the region – including the south-west and north-east monsoons.
Interestingly, though northwest India recorded very high temperatures in June that did not reflect in the data.
“That is because the heat wave days were very few but rest of the days had normal temperature. Overall, in the country temperatures were largely near normal or slightly above normal,” Sreejith added.
According to the Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia prepared by Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) and IMD, currently, La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. La Niña conditions are likely to continue throughout the monsoon months. The probability forecast for precipitation for June, July and August indicates higher probability for below normal rainfall over some parts of the extreme northwest, extreme north and southeast Asia and enhanced probability of above normal precipitation is likely over rest of South Asia.
The probability forecast for temperature for the season indicates higher probability for below normal temperatures over most parts of South Asia except over some parts of northwest, west and few parts of northeast peninsular region of South Asia where there is a moderate probability of above normal temperatures. Most parts of north India along the plains of Himalayas, central and some parts of southeast Peninsular India are likely to experience below normal temperatures.
Meanwhile, widespread and heavy rains continued over west coast and central India on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Extremely heavy rainfall (over 20 cm) occurred over several places in Coastal Karnataka, West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, heavy to very heavy rainfall (11.5 to 20 cm) occurred over Telangana, Odisha, Gujarat State, Assam, Meghalaya, Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, South Interior Karnataka and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Haryana-Chandigarh, Punjab, East Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, East Rajasthan, North Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.
The low-pressure area which formed over Odisha on July 3 is lying over Kutch and neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to mid tropospheric levels. It is likely to move further westwards and become less marked during the next 24 hours. The monsoon trough is active and south of its normal position. Its western end is very likely to shift gradually northwards from tomorrow.
An east-west shear zone is running above mean sea level. An off-shore trough is at mean sea level running from Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast. A cyclonic circulation is also lying over north Odisha and adjoining Chhattisgarh.
